3 Possible Futures for Covid-19
With the end of the mask mandate, I wanted to take a moment and give you our perspective going forward. What we do in the next month could determine when we see normalcy and potentially who lives to see it.
The worst scenario: A fourth surge of the coronavirus outpaces vaccinations and kills thousands more people even as the country nears the finish line with Covid-19. This happens if we loosen up on Covid-19 precautions too quickly. If we discard masks and fail to socially distance before the vaccine rollout reaches herd immunity, we will be headed for a fourth surge.
The best possibility: No fourth surge at all. The accelerating vaccine rollout and continued vigilance keep the virus at its current level or lower, resulting in fewer infections. If we hold out just a bit longer, and vaccination rates continue to pick up, the US could reach the end of the current large outbreaks. Cases dwindle down close to zero. At current vaccination rates, this could happen by July, leaving us ample time over the summer to start getting our lives back to normal.
The middle path: Cases rise, but vaccines shield the country from more hospitalizations and deaths. With much of the vulnerable population vaccinated, a rise in Covid-19 cases may not translate to a significant rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Younger people may contract the virus. Hopefully, they won’t show up at the hospital or die at the same rates as older individuals. The virus would lose the race to the vaccines.
What doe this mean for us? Our goal is to achieve the best possible scenario. We will continue with masking and social distancing for now. Change will be guided by CDC and health department recommendations. For classes of all ADULTS, if ALL participants are fully vaccinated and you have shown us proof of vaccination, we will allow maskless participation. If anyone does not meet the standard, all participants will be required to wear a mask and socially distance.
These are the current CDC recommendations for Youth sports…
- Setting: choose outdoor settings as much as possible, particularly for high intensity activities.
- Proximity: maintain at least 6 feet of separation (about 2 arm lengths) and avoid close contact with other people.
- Field of play: try to choose a larger playing area so that you can spread out from each other.
- Mask use: wear a mask that covers your mouth and nose at all times.
- Exertion level: limit high-intensity activities to the outdoors.
- Travel: limit travel required outside of the local community.
- Ventilation: look for facilities that have high ceilings and use ventilation practices such as opening doors and windows and use portable air cleaners that have HEPA filters.
- Frequently touched surfaces and shared equipment or gear: wipe off frequently touched surfaces, equipment, or gear with disinfecting wipes before and after use.
- Clean hands: wash your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds or use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol before and after using machines.
- Number of people: limit how many individuals you interact with.
- Duration: if choosing to stay indoors, keep your activities as brief as possible to avoid prolonged exposure.
- Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/playing-sports.html
Our goal is to keep ALL our students safe while providing a place for you to train. Hang in there. We’ve made it this far. We can do this!
Master Bob Perk